Brexit, WTF?!?!?

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Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby aquaphase » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:45 pm

I'm just floored the measure passed. I guess I was floored that it even came to a vote, but wow. The pound is in the toilet today. I guess I should plan my UK trip soon.
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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:02 am

Aparrently, it's Obama's fault for having recently spoken out in favor of remaining. At least, that's what I'm told (2nd hand from Fox News). I tried to say that he's very popular there and I really doubt any dip in polling was really attributable to him, but stopped at the whole correlation is not causation, because, what the hell? Personally, my guess is a lot of people felt like this was another London vs the rest of us and when's the next chance we'll have to stick it to them? The same reason Trump will have a chance no matter what happens in the next four months.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:56 pm

Also, those of you in the UK will be interested to hear that, again per the handful of minutes of FOX News I didn't manage to ignore, you've been aggressively expanding you welfare state these past few years. As if the last seven years (& Thatcher) didn't happen. I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that is totally false.

This probably shouldn't become a FOX fact checking thread though, we'd need a bigger internets.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby Irock » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:36 pm

Related: "TEXIT" is the one sure way to guarantee I never move home.

Also, over the weekend I had someone (friend of a friend on FB) assure me that Texas DID have the right to succeed, because Sam Houston ensured it, and the Louisiana Purchase followed.
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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:05 pm

I don't want to downplay the discontent over how globalization has eviscerated the middle class. That's a real thing that both parties here went in together on, and apparently in the UK as well, and no one has a real workable answer so far. Immigration in this is largely fear-mongering. I can totally see how the bureaucratic mania in Brussels only made it worse. If the EPA mandated the end of wood-fired smokers, there'd be a lot of BBQ fans calling for a Texit.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby aquaphase » Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:52 pm

I had the opportunity to talk to a couple of ex-pats about it at the pub this weekend and got some interesting perspectives. All of them would have voted for Remain, but had family that voted out. They all said that the fear-mongering around immigration was all that was really pushed in the middle/lower class areas and that a lot of people they knew didn't really realize what all was involved in the exit. Sounds like Boris Johnson used those "journalism" skills to his advantage quite deftly.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:54 pm

The craziest part of that video is that she seems to have put some effort into forming those opinions!

It's back to England vs France/Germany now. So long as those two want to preserve the EU, they'll have to make sure the new trade deal England gets is demonstrably worse than staying in. Otherwise, they risk losing southern Euro members and then maybe another big one, then the whole thing falls apart. Even if the new deals are worse on the face of it, though, the financial powers-that-be in London will probably find some way to turn this to their advantage, i.e. the worst of both worlds. I don't know what that means for England internally, especially as Scotland is headed for the door and Wales and Northern Ireland weigh their options.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby Irock » Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:48 pm

sam wrote:The craziest part of that video is that she seems to have put some effort into forming those opinions!
This guy has a whole series of videos making fun of his 'dumb girlfriend;' in one she insists that she'd rather have a pizza cut into 8 slices than 12 because she could eat 8, but she couldn't eat 12. They're also one of those internet couples that like to prank each other on camera.
I chose to believe they're fake. The alternative is too terrible.

But I also refused to believe Trump really intended to run for president until about February, so.
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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby James » Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:56 pm

The whole thing is crazy. On the one hand, I can't believe it, but on the other, I kinda saw it coming. Because, even since I've been here, I've noticed a sinister underbelly to UK society outside of the cities. I lived in prime time "Daily Mail Country" and what was unspoken has now become very loudly spoken. It has given the far right a lot of bravado and now people just think it's fine to simply be racist in the streets...nevermind Brexit isn't actually sending anyone home...the illiterate have come home to roost and don't care about facts.

But here's the real kicker: there are issues. The EU is not really a democratic body. It is autocratic and very much a nanny state in some regards. Yes, there is free movement of people, and a lot of people want to come to London because it's one of the world's greatest. Also, they want to come to the UK for a wide variety of reasons: jobs, education, people are (or were) generally ok, a nicer life...people have been coming to the UK in masses (I don't know if it's more or less than other countries, but it is noticeable.

This spawns the real issues: Lack of housing has pushed the prices up in London to obscene levels, and pushed people to the outskirts, raising house prices there as well. Wages in jobs outside of London are not nearly keeping up with this. Transport: my yearly ticket was just over £4k when in London...I read it is nearly £6k now...masses of people and these services have been terribly under-invested in by the private companies that own them as well as the public rail network. There is stress on schools; again, incredibly underfunded by Tories and Labour alike...not enough schools, not enough places, and too much tampering this way and that way. There is incredible stress on the NHS; again, not growing to the needs of the populous due to lack of funds. Child care is at an all time premium.

These things complicate the matter. But not a single one of them had to do with the EU. These are all failings of the UK Government, and have been for decades. The EU percentage was a very small percent of the overall budget, and we are likely to find out it was probably worth more than was being paid in.

I said this about America some time back, and it's still true, but it seems ever truer of Britain at the moment. There is a middle class and a working class that are seeing their placement fall back. And even though they might be better off than some other nations, it's their own perception that is the key. Throw in the very disgusting written press in this country and you have what we have now.
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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:25 am

Good summary of those exact dynamics here:

http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/2733-on ... -supremacy

Different details but similar here.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:32 am

And the neoliberal "solution" to high prices in London (or anywhere else) is to wait for a recession!

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:49 pm

More interesting thoughts on the subject:

http://www.salon.com/2016/06/29/dont_bl ... chnocracy/

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby aquaphase » Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:13 pm

I think Cameron's move/non-move of refusing to sign Article 50 is pure strategic genius. Just now Boris the Terrible announced that he's not seeking the Tory leadership spot. So awesome.

Edit:
Oooh, it looks like things are really in free fall now
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... CMP=twt_gu
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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby sam » Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:30 pm

aquaphase wrote:I think Cameron's move/non-move of refusing to sign Article 50 is pure strategic genius. Just now Boris the Terrible announced that he's not seeking the Tory leadership spot. So awesome.
Seriously! Signing Article 50 should be the victory lap of the winners, except it's obvious now that isn't the case. I'm starting to think, though, that while the short and mid-term implications could be bad, but this may be better for the UK (or its successors) in the long-term.

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Re: Brexit, WTF?!?!?

Postby James » Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:17 pm

The Boris non-run is a stroke of genius by Cameron. He has purposely made the pathway that much harder for a Brexiteer to take over, in particular Boris. If one of them wins, they simply have to do it. Only one of them has put himself forward for running, and I think he'll be out of it pretty quickly (Michael Gove). Theresa May is probably best placed to do it, but she was a remain person (but only just; she played a very clever position in all of this).

There's also the mess on the left with Labour...Corbyn refuses to leave and frankly, I can't say a lot of it is his fault. The press do not give him any fair course at all and it all seems to be a set-up to remove him. He is indeed far too socialist to be Prime Minister, and that means he probably shouldn't be in power, but he also has the mandate from the people. There will likely be a challenge to his leadership and one would think they would capitalise on this; they haven't thus far and it's a bit reminiscent of all of the stuff going on stateside...there seems to be four distinct groups fighting for two identities, and it's fracturing.

I'm still a bit unsure it's actually going to happen. While I think it's a mistake, there is no doubt in 20 years time it will be great. I can see ways it can work too, and I don't like the EU as a concept...I do think it can work but I think the method is untenable; still, I would rather have seen the UK work with a coalition of nations to try and change it. What will be interesting is what follows, and some of it is scary.

If the UK leaves and succeeds, it is likely to trigger a similar event in France. Hollande is the least popular president they have ever had, and it is likely he and his party will lose by a landslide. It is his fault too. Given all of the recent events, their version of UKIP (although they are much much nastier) led by Marine Le Pen could come to power. They will most certainly give the French the vote, and they will be out without a doubt...the French are far more nationalist than the English full stop.

The problem with that is that Marine Le Pen will be in power. They will likely either remove foreigners (meaning, non-white ones) or worse...the bits of racism that have been permeating throughout the UK will be child's play to what they will do in France. If there was ever a situation that reminds me of Weimar Germany, it's France...the UK also, but France even more so.

Poland's ultra-right government is already in place; they would go. The Greek far left are failing miserably in a lot of ways, but they would likely make some noise to leave. Countries that are Europe's border area (particularly Hungary) would also likely follow because they really don't want the refugees coming into Europe. The Netherlands' far right movement has been gaining steam for some time.

They speak a good solidarity game now, but this can all change. I think it's pretty clear it is just an extension of German federalism misapplied in an autocratic fashion. It is, indeed, undemocratic. And watching them a bit, they sounded quite a bit like FIFA.

Still, the short/medium term is scary. If they only trade deal they end up with is the trans pacific partnership, for instance....that's a frightening thing.


It's just gone crazy in Europe....
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